Olympic Report - August 12, 2008

I must thank my dear sister for alerting me to the story of the little Chinese girl lip-synching at the opening ceremony for the Olympics. Do you know what this is folks? It is cheating, and that is about all I'll have to say on this subject. (And you mean to tell me that out of a billion plus people China could not find a cute little girl with a good singing voice?)

Oh but wait, because I suddenly have more to say. As I perused the medal tables earlier this morning or afternoon, a realization came to me that was utterly disturbing. While the great US of A was ahead in the medal count, as we should be (twenty-one total medals versus China's twenty medals), we did trail the host country in terms of number of gold medals. (I believe at that time China led thirteen golds to the US's six or seven.) Now sure, China does have probably four times our population, but still no nation should have more gold medals than the USA. I could only come to the conclusion that there was more cheating going on on the part of China.

But as you might imagine, I was just a tad bit lazy to do the necessary research to see in what events China had cheated to win all of these gold medals. So instead, I have come up with a creative solution to ensure that the US returns to its rightful place as the country with the most gold medals.

My remedy to this problem is quite simple; there just are not enough swimming events in the Olympics yet. I know that Michael Phelps has won every event that he has entered so far in the Olympics, but can we say with a certainty that Phelps would win the 200 meter freestyle-butterfly individual medley if the event were contested? Or for that matter, can we say with a certainty whether Phelps would win - and wait for it - the 400 meter freestyle-butterfly individual medley relay? I say we try it out just in case so that the greatest Olympic athlete of all time can have a chance to win a few more medals. (And you probably noticed that I left out the 250 meter freestyle-butterfly medley relay - well let's not get silly. This would require Phelps to change strokes in the middle of a lap, and while Ihave no doubt that the great Phelps could do this, I'm just not confident that any other swimmers could do so. This just would not be a fair competition and so I will leave it out.)

And why in heavens did they ever limit the number of stroke disciplines to just four?! You're telling me that we couldn't get a little sidestroke action into the swimming program? And no elementary backstroke? Come on! We are so getting cheated in these Olympics!

The Brett Favre Saga

Quite frankly, this Brett Favre retirement/non-retirement saga is getting a bit annoying. All you hear about all day long seemingly is whether or not Brett and the Packers are essentially going steady anymore. To be honest, I don't really care, but I got to thinking and I'm pretty sure that there have to be other people who are just as annoyed as I am by this Brett Favre Saga. And so without further delay, here are the top ten people who are pissed off about the Brett Favre Saga.

10. Cabral Williams - Ordinarily I would never have a top ten list that had me at number ten. For the purposes of such a list that would put me in last place, and I don't like to put myself in last place ever. Because I'm a winner. But I put myself here because believe it or not, I think that there are others who are slightly more annoyed by this than I am. Not that they are better than me, because they're not, but they are probably a little more annoyed. And the mitigating factor in the Brett Favre Saga is that as annoying as it is, it is still much more exciting than spending the entire summer worrying about the boring baseball season.

9. Cal Ripken, Jr. - You can see it coming, I can see it coming, so Cal Ripken, Jr. can definitely see it coming. As you may know, Ripken holds the Major League Baseball record for consecutive games played at 2,632. Well, Brett Favre holds the record for most consecutive games started by an NFL quarterback at 253. Knowing Brett (and I don't really know Brett), he won't be satisfied with just taking down Jeff Feagles's (ongoing) NFL record of 320 consecutive games played, he's shooting for Ripken. Now sure, barring an increase in the number of games of an NFL season, and assuming no work stoppages along the way, Favre won't have the opportunity to break Ripken's record until the twelfth game of the 2156 season, but Cal just cannot be happy that Brett just won't hang it up.

8. Fans of the 2156 Green Bay Packers - Now in truth, fans of the prior 140 or so Packers teams will share similar sentiments, but in particular, fans of the 2156 Green Bay Packers (although it is almost certain that none are yet alive) cannot be happy with where this is going. I mean, raise your hand if you would be thrilled if your NFL team was breaking camp with a 186-soon-to-be-187 year old quarterback attempting to lead the team to the championship.

7. Brian Brohm - What looked like an ideal situation, being drafted as the backup quarterback for a guy who had never started an NFL game before, for a team that came extremely close to making it to the Super Bowl last season, suddenly no longer looks so rosy. Tell me, would you want to spend the next century and a half as the third-string quarterback, only coming into the game if both of the guys ahead of you were injured or for mop-up duty during blowout games?

6. Aaron Rodgers - It would seem virtually impossible for anyone to be more annoyed with this Brett Favre Saga than Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has to be annoyed for similar reasons to those of Brohm, but one has to believe that Rodgers's level of annoyance goes a bit higher (at least one level higher as Rodgers is number six while Brohm was number seven). When Rodgers was coming out of college a few years back, there was some discussion that he might in fact be the number one player taken in the entire draft. Unfortunately for Rodgers, that honor went to Utah's Alex Smith. Rodgers had to have been looking to finally show the world that he is a quality player, and in particular to demonstrate this fact to the more than one person (because I certainly did this and I have to assume that there is at least one other person who did so as well) who derived great enjoyment out of seeing Rodgers slip all the way to the number twenty-four selection. And so Aaron Rodgers has to be saying, "Brett, get out of here! Just retire, old man! Let me have a shot!"

5. Aaron Rodgers - Aaron

4. Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers

3. Aaron Rodgers - Hates

2. Aaron Rodgers - Brett

1. Aaron Rodgers - Favre.

Late Night Pizza

In the wee hours of a Friday morning, Cabral decides that it is a good idea to drive two girls who he has never met before to wherever it is they have to go after witnessing the dude that was supposed to take them there storm off angrily and after seeing the girls eat pizza that had fallen on the ground.

Someone, let's just say it was Heebs, decides to call the Wonder Twins...

Meanwhile, miles away at Chuck E. Cheese's, the Wonder Twins are engaged in a spirited game of skee ball...

Zan: "Watch this, Wonder Sis, I'm totally about to sink this ball in the fifty!"
Jayna: "The only way you'll sink it in the fifty is if you are really very nifty!"

Moments later, an alarm goes off...

Zan: "Jupiters! It's the Teen Trouble Alert!"
Heebs (through the TTA speaker): "Wonder Twins! I just saw Cabral walk off to drive two girls who may be drunk and just ate pizza that fell on the ground!"
Jayna: "Oh no! We'd better get over there right now!"
Jayna and Zan: "Wonder Twin p-"
Heebs: "Wait, where are you right now?"
Zan: "We're at Chuck E. Cheese's."
Heebs: "Why? It's like 2:30 in the morning. Isn't that place closed?"
Jayna: "Yes, but Gleek wanted to play Whac-A-Mole and Chuck E. Cheese's won't let us in with monkeys when there are children around anymore. The last time we brought him here when kids were here, he bit a kid and gave him rabies."
Heebs: "So you broke into Chuck E. Cheese's."
Jayna: "We'd better go help Cabral!"
Jayna and Zan: "Wonder Twin powers activate!"
Jayna: "Shape of an eagle!"
Zan: "Form of water!"

And so Jayna flies off holding Gleek who carries Zan in a bucket.

Meanwhile, a short distance away, Cabral brings his car to a stop in an empty parking lot.

Girl #1 (in the passenger seat): "I think that she is totally about to puke back there."
Cabral: "That would totally suck since you've already dropped my pizza on the ground."

Just then the Wonder Twins (and Gleek) arrive.

Jayna and Zan: "Wonder Twin powers deactivate!"
Zan: "What seems to be the problem kids?"
Cabral: "I'm not really a kid anymore, but why are you guys still answering the Teen Trouble Alert? Aren't you like forty-five years old or so by now?"
Girl #1: "Girl #2 ate some pizza off the ground and now she's in the back of the car about to puke!"
Jayna: "This calls for some Wonder Twin power, Wonder Brother!"
Jayna and Zan: "Wonder Twin powers activate!"
Jayna: "Shape of a -"
Cabral: "Sponge!"
Zan: "Form of -"
Cabral: "Water!"

Thinking quickly, Cabral tossed sponge-Jayna into Gleek's bucket containing water-Zan. Cabral then forced the monkey to clean up the puke in his car using Jayna and Zan. After Gleek had finished cleaning the puke out of Cabral's car, the Wonder Twins had reverted back to their alien forms.

Cabral: "Thanks Wonder Twins! I would have been in trouble if you hadn't showed up."
Girl #1: "Yeah, thanks Wonder Twins! If you hadn't showed up I would have had to clean up the puke or Girl #2 would have still been lying facedown in the puke because I don't think Cabral was going to clean it up."
Cabral: "You're right Girl #1!"
Jayna: "Remember kids, don't talk to strangers."
Zan: "Yeah kids, and never eat pizza that has fallen on the ground."
Gleek: "Glck, glglglglck, glglck!"
Zan: "What is it Gleek?"
Jayna: "I think that Gleek wants to eat the puke that's stuck in your hair, Wonder Brother!"
Zan: "That's great Wonder Sis! Maybe afterwards he'll eat the puke that's stuck in your hair!"
Cabral: "Thanks again Wonder Twins!"

Cabral drives off leaving Girls #1 and #2 with the Wonder Twins as Gleek, having finished eating the puke out of Zan's hair moves on to eat the puke out of Jayna's hair.

This Morning's Top Story - July 23, 2008

In an absolutely stunning development I have learned that two ATP (that would be Association of Tennis Professionals to those unaware - the men's professional tour) tennis players have recently been suspended by, err, the ATP for betting on tennis matches. You can read about it here if you would like.

You may be asking yourself at this point, what's so stunning about this, given that the article itself mentions recent allegations of potential match fixing by tour player Nikolay Davydenko. True, the fact that tennis players were gambling on the match isn't the stunning development of which I am speaking. What is stunning about this is that I learned of this news in the first place.

Now I will freely admit that I am a fairly big tennis fan, however, even my level of interest in the sport does not rise to the point where I would know, let alone care, what the names of the 34th and 37th ranked doubles players in the world are. These people are doubles players for crying out loud! Usually the best doubles players in the world play doubles because they are not skilled enough to win on a consistent basis playing singles. And these two guys in a combined twenty years of professional tennis play have a combined singles record of 19-29. They're obviously not that great at playing singles, but they're ranked 34th and 37th in the world playing doubles. So I would say that they aren't exceptionally good at doubles either.

So in essence what is stunning about this story is that Associated Press evidently had someone to spare to write about it. How is it newsworthy that the 34th and 37th ranked doubles players in the world are betting on tennis matches that do not involve themselves?

And of course, you naturally should be asking why I even care about this or even bothered to open the link. Well, I will simply answer this (very good) enquiry by saying that recently I have heard a number of complaints (or better yet whines) by people because I have not been updating this weblog enough. Well, here you go.

Non-Rigged Flip Cup 2008

I would like to offer my congratulations to the winners of this year's 2nd Annual Houston Flip-Cup Tournament, also potentially to be known as the 1st Annual Non-Rigged Houston Flip-Cup Tournament. (We of course won't know if the non-rigging of the tournament is annual until another tournament is held next year that is also not rigged, unlike what occurred last year.)

Being clear underdogs heading into the finals, the purple team consisting of a bunch of people who I'm not going to waste my time naming battled valiantly to defeat the heavily favored orange team. (I would name the orange team's players, but this also would be a waste of my time.) The match came down to round five of this best of five rounds match. Team orange was ahead early and led heading into the final leg of the round, but some faulty cup placement during the flipping portion of the contest doomed team orange as the team purple anchor, who for some unfathomable reason decided to fly to Houston, TX, for the sole reason of competing in a flip cup tournament that pure percentages should have told her was likely to be rigged, came up with a clutch chug and perfect flip to secure the upset.

Bravo Team Purple!

Also, James was totally owned by Hebing when they faced off during the tournament.

Belmont Stakes - Big Brown Looks Unbeatable

Okay so we are now finally a day away from the Belmont Stakes and quite frankly, I'm going to have to agree with Big Brown's trainer, Rick Dutrow; I just cannot see how Big Brown is going to lose this race. Assuming Big Brown is healthy, and assuming all of the other horse are healthy as well (unfortunately there is word that Casino Drive has come down with a bruised hind foot today), it just seems hard to imagine that another horse can win.

Big Brown is thus far undefeated, so it is somewhat ridiculous to talk about the way to beat Big Brown. It has not happened yet, so any talk of how to beat Big Brown is pure speculation. However, one can certainly take some guesses about how it would be possible. Based on watching the races in which Big Brown has run thus far, in order to beat him, a horse would have to debilitate Big Brown's kick. Based on watching these horses run, Big Brown seems to easily have the highest top speed. In order to beat Big Brown, another horse would have to set dangerously fast fractions (:23.x, :46.x, 1:10.x perhaps) and hope that Big Brown follows and wilts on the final straightaway. The problem with this scenario is that (1) Big Brown has shown thus far that he totally responds to Kent Desormeaux's commands and Desormeaux would likely not allow Big Brown to chase an insane pace and (2) I don't really see any horse in this field setting such a suicidal pace.

The problem with picking another horse against Big Brown is that despite the fact that some of these other horses might be closers, I don't think that any of them have demonstrated anywhere near the closing speed to handle Big Brown's finishing acceleration. The paces off of which Big Brown delivered those bursts were legitimate paces, slow by no means. What this means is that Big Brown should have been able to handle even stronger paces, if other horses had set them. Sure, Big Brown may have not had quite the ending acceleration that he has displayed in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, but against the horses he has faced so far, he would not have needed it as he would have separated from them with ease at those paces. The bottom line is that there does not appear to be any horse here that will take that kick out of Big Brown. Casino Drive may be a more talented horse than any other Big Brown has faced so far (and I do say he may be more talented because many people thought that some of the competition was pretty strong in the Kentucky Derby before Big Brown dispatched those horses with ease), but much of the hype concerning Casino Drive is based on two things. The first thing is his victory in the Peter Pan Stakes four weeks ago that I would argue is a weaker performance than any of Big Brown's last three races. The second thing is that Casino Drive's half siblings have won the last two Belmont Stakes races and so the story is that Casino Drive was "bred" for the distance. Yes, rather than seeing the last two Belmonts as some sort of a fluke occurrence (which it very may well be), I think that because there are many out there who do not respect what Big Brown has done and do not respect Big Brown's capabilities, they are willing to so easily talk themselves into giving Casino Drive a questionable edge.

I just cannot see Big Brown losing to these horses.

Welcome Back 1980s!

I am quite thrilled, just as I suspect anyone else reading this certainly is, to welcome back the 1980s! For quite some time I've desired to be transported back to my favorite decade when we were introduced to the highest quality of television and the highest quality of musical performers. But being ostensibly a scientist, I'm well aware that the technology needed to accomplish time travel into the past is probably a good 10 billion years away from being perfected (sigh...). Well joy of joys, it seems as if the late 1980s has been transported to me! (And I guess to all of you too...)

I first came to suspect that something was up when during the fall of last year, old episodes of American Gladiators started popping up on ESPN Classic. I remember when American Gladiators began those long years ago and I remember thinking the show was really cool. But there must have been something that happened along the way that caused me to stop watching the show because after all, the original run of the show lasted until 1996. Let's see, what could have possibly caused me to stop watching that show...

Oh, I remember! I grew beyond the age of twelve or thirteen. I mean seriously, there are reasons that shows like American Gladiators go off the air. Or maybe there is just one reason; people come to their senses and realize that the show is stupid. When the XFL folded, it folded because, you guessed it, people realized that it was stupid. When American Idol and Dancing with the Stars fold, they will fold because, you guessed it, people will have come to their senses (finally) and finally realized that these shows are stupid. No but wait, there's more.

Have you ever wondered what ever became of the New Kids on the Block? No? Well you're not alone. I just can't figure this out; really, who thought it was a good idea for these guys to make a comeback? Who really wants to see some more of the New Kids Hangin' Tough? Let's do a quick analysis. Back in the late 80s, I can remember that the New Kids on the Block were popular with a certain segment of the population. And that segment would be the pre-teen to early teenage girls who were completely insane. Well, fast-forward about twenty years and I just wonder to myself what could possibly draw these girls (now in their late twenties to early thirties) to a bunch of guys who are probably in their late thirties to early forties and are calling themselves the New Kids on the Block. They are almost forty years old!!! There was presumably a reason why their act died away a decade and a half ago; everyone (and by everyone I mean teenaged girls) realized that these guys were lame. Nothing has changed in the last fifteen years. These guys are still lame. So really, why would you want to waste your money, and more importantly, your time going to see these washed, boy-band jokers struggle their way through twenty year old songs? That's time that you will never, ever get back.

And finally we have one last example. Now in truth, this particular show did premiere in 1990, but I figured that 1990 was close enough to not really change the premise of my argument. What show am I talking about? Well, Beverly Hills, 90210, of course! So I got wind of the fact that a stupid spinoff of this show (titled 90210, creatively enough) was planned as I had the msn.com site open a couple of weeks back. I happened to see that for some reason Lori Loughlin was listed in their popular searches. I thought to myself, Lori Loughlin!? They're not planning to bring back Full House, are they? Because that was truly a horrible show, and besides, John Stamos and his hair are currently tied up ruining ER. Admittedly, though, when I decided to click on the search for Lori Loughlin and I saw that the information indicated that she was going to be on a new 90210 show, my immediate impulse led me to believe that this was going to be a spinoff from Melrose Place. My thought was that with Loughlin in her mid forties, there is no way she was going to star in a show that in its genesis, centered around high school students (although Ian Ziering was indeed thirty something at some point while he was playing a high school student I believe, and maybe forty something as well). But sure enough, it is a spinoff/sequel to the original Beverly Hills, 90210! And apparently, they've brought some of the old crew back, with Jennie Garth and Tori Spelling reportedly reprising their roles! Yaaaaaay! Wait a minute; who exactly was it who thought that it would be a good idea to bring this show back?

Welcome back 1980s (and early 1990s)!

Big Brown vs Casino Drive - May 24, 2008

I have good news for you horse racing fans! This is going to be yet another horse racing post, and so obviously if you do not like horse racing, I don't really care. As you are no doubt aware of by now, Big Brown did go on to win the Preakness Stakes impressively by 5 1/4 lengths in 1:54.86. The margin could have been a lot more if Kent Desormeaux had allowed Big Brown to really throw down for longer in the race, but Desormeaux wisely thought to save some of the horse's energy for the Belmont Stakes on June 7.

Big Brown is already in New York as I write, getting set for his attempt to become the first US Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. Big Brown has dominated every single horse that has ever raced against him. The case can be made that we have yet to truly see Big Brown at his best because he has never been truly challenged. And I will be honest, as impressive as Big Brown looked in the Preakness, his competition was truly atrocious. Andrew Beyer put it best in his article when he said "[r]arely do a horse and rider win any kind of race...with such obvious disdain for the competition." That Big Brown was able to win so easily should not have been a surprise. (Heck, I essentially stated that Big Brown could win this race in essentially the way in which he did and I am clearly no expert - please ignore those picks for second and third place.) However, there still appear to be many people who refuse to acknowledge the quality of races that Big Brown has run (irrespective of what the "competition" might have done in the races), and continue to grasp at straws for why Big Brown should be unqualified to win this Triple Crown.

Before the Kentucky Derby, the story was that Big Brown was too lightly raced and that no horse since 1929 had won the race from post 20, Big Brown's assigned post in the Derby. Of course the naysayers seemed to heavily discount the quality of Big Brown's prior starts when assessing his Derby chances. In Big Brown's maiden run in 2007, he won the 1 1/16 mile turf race in a very fast 1:40.33, while setting quarter-mile fractions of 23.19, 47.54 (24.35), 1:11.84 (24.3), and 1:34.46 (22.62). Now turf (grass) times tend to be faster than dirt times, so on dirt one would expect slower times, however, notice that the second half mile that Big Brown ran (46.92) was faster than the first (47.54). He won this race by 11 1/4 lengths.

In Big Brown's second race, and first of this year, he ran a mile on dirt and set quarter-mile fractions of 22.95, 45.31 (22.36), 1:09.87 (24.56), and finished in 1:35.66 (25.79). This might seem like a disappointing time, but watch the race. The race was a joke. Kent Desormeaux never had to ask Big Brown to run hard and he just cruised in for the win. Nearing the top of the stretch you can see Desormeaux looking around behind him for other horses - something that would become a familiar sight in later races. The key is that if asked Big Brown probably could have gone two seconds faster in this race. He won this race by 12 3/4 lengths.

The next race for Big Brown, and the one that installed him as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby, was the March 29 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby. The Florida Derby was the last Kentucky Derby prep race that the great Kentucky Derby champion Barbaro contested in 2006. In that Florida Derby, Barbaro did the seemingly incredible, winning the race from post 10 in a time of 1:49.01. The fractions for that race were 23.45, 47.35 (23.9), 1:11.37 (24.02), and 1:36.08 (24.71). Barbaro won that race by about a quarter length. When Big Brown ran the race, he won from an even more impressive post 12 in 1:48.16, setting splits of 22.76, 45.83 (23.07), 1:10.08 (24.25), and 1:35.18 (25.1). Big Brown won the Florida Derby by five lengths. Clearly Big Brown's Florida Derby was more impressive. He broke from a more disadvantageous position, set faster fractions in leading from wire-to-wire, and his final eighth of a mile was nearly as fast as Barbaro's (12.98 for Big Brown versus 12.93 for Barbaro) even though Big Brown had the race in hand and was not being pushed to finish.

Then we come to the Kentucky Derby. The race has been discussed widely because of the ill-fated run of Eight Belles. Despite this tragedy, the run by Big Brown was truly spectacular. Again starting from post 20, Big Brown won the 1 1/4 mile race in 2:01.82 in which the fractions were 23.3, 47.04 (23.74), 1:11.14 (24.1), and 1:36.56 (25.42). What may not be immediately obvious, and if you do the math (and I've done the math), you will realize that the last quarter mile, in 25.26, was faster than the second to last quarter mile. Essentially this means that the pace to the mile mark was not an overly taxing pace for Big Brown as he still was able to accelerate late in the race. Big Brown won by 4 3/4 lengths over Eight Belles, with another 3 1/2 lengths back to third place Denis of Cork.

And finally we come to the Preakness. There is no secret that Big Brown won the race. As stated above, he went the 1 3/16 mile course in 1:54.86, with fractions of 23.59, 46.81 (23.22), 1:10.48 (23.67), and 1:35.72 (25.24). Big Brown was able to win this race by 5 1/4 lengths with Desormeaux slowing him down well before he had crossed the line. Big Brown probably could have won by more than 10 lengths had Desormeaux allowed him.

Two weeks from today is the Belmont Stakes, the 1 1/2 mile race that has doomed ten Triple Crown contenders in the last thirty years. Many have said that Big Brown has the best shot at winning the Crown since the great Spectacular Bid in 1979. The new horse that everyone is talking about that supposedly has a shot at derailing Big Brown is Casino Drive. There are three main factors that the "experts" point to when assessing Casino Drive's chances. First of all, he is half-brother (sharing the same mother) to the last two Belmont Stakes winners, Jazil in 2006 and Rags to Riches in 2007. And second of all, people point to Casino Drive's victory at Belmont Park in the 1 1/8 Peter Pan Stakes on May 10 in 1:47.87. Casino Drive won this race by five lengths with Kent Desormeaux as his jockey. It's a very impressive time, better than Big Brown's time at the same distance in the Florida Derby, with quarter mile splits of 23.08, 46.31 (23.23), 1:10.47 (24.16), and 1:35.26 (24.79). The third main factor that people use is that Casino Drive will be the more rested horse.

Casino Drive hasn't received nearly the same scrutiny that Big Brown has. Would you care to know how many lifetime races Casino Drive has completed as he prepares for the Belmont? Two. The Peter Pan Stakes was Casino Drive's second lifetime race. Why is there no talk about whether such a lightly raced horse such as Casino Drive able to win such a demanding race as the Belmont as there was for Big Brown heading into the Kentucky Derby? Additionally, is the fact that Casino Drive is half brother to the last two Belmont winners really that strong of a piece of evidence? Put in another way, might it not be more chance than anything else that Jazil and Rags to Riches happened to win the Belmont? Surely there have been well-bred horses born from the same mare who have shown varying abilities to perform over the last several decades. Why should it be the case that simply because Casino Drive's two half siblings won the last two Blemonts that Casino Drive should have a reasonable chance to upset Big Brown? Oh, that's right, Casino Drive did have that big performance in the Peter Pan Stakes. However, that performance is somewhat deceptive, and is in my opinion not as impressive as Big Brown's Florida Derby victory.

One of the things that I have never heard discussed is the dimensions of the tracks on which the horses have run. The Belmont Park main racecourse, on which the Belmont Stakes will be contested and on which the Peter Pan Stakes took place, is a 1 1/2 mile racecourse. The straights of the Belmont course are 1940 feet, which leaves 2020 feet for each of the curves. The Gulfstream Park course, where the Florida Derby took place, is a 1 1/8 mile racecourse, and as nearly as I can tell, the straights are about 1370 feet while the curves are 1600 feet. (This is a rough estimate based on using the Gmaps Pedometer, but it is close enough for qualitative and quantitative purposes.) Casino Drive ran a single turn in his Peter Pan win while Big Brown ran two turns in his Florida Derby win. Anyone who has ever run in races knows that it is harder to maintain a high speed on a tighter curve than it is on a more gradual turn. That Big Brown ran a longer distance on tighter curves (3200 feet versus 2020 feet) and actually had to run a few horses wide on the first turn as a result of the disadvantageous 12 post start position (actually increasing the distance that he ran), and only ran .29 seconds slower than Casino Drive, who was able to stay along the rail for pretty much the entire race, is impressive. Each horse won by five lengths and so it is unclear as to whether either was going all out as the race ended.

The biggest that I see with those who are discounting Big Brown's chances is that it seems virtually everyone ignores the fact that Big Brown seems to listen to and obey Kent Desormeaux's every command. From all appearances, Big Brown will not go off chasing an insanely fast pace on his own, and I doubt that Kent Desormeaux would direct him to do so. From what I've seen, the only way to defeat Big Brown is to set some pace that is fast enough that he will have his kick taken out of him. So far, none of these other horses have demonstrated this ability. In the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, Big Brown was positioned just off of the pace as he reached the quarter pole, and then once Desormeaux gave him the green light, he accelerated away from the field, gapping them by three to four lenghts in a matter of a few strides. I don't think any of the horses that ran against Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness are good enough to set such a fast pace that will break Big Brown. And in those last two races, once Big Brown pulled away the distance widened without Kent Desormeaux asking for the full effort out of Big Brown. (This was certainly the case in the Preakness, but I believe it was also the case in the Kentucky Derby.) I don't think that Casino Drive would be likely to set the pace in the Belmont and I have not seen anything out of this horse to suggest that he can handle that Big Brown acceleration when it inevitably comes.

The Scene in He Got Game

So yesterday evening I happened to watch much of game one of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons, and quite naturally, I was disappointed as the Celtics came away the victors. Somewhat coincidentally, I was flipping channels this morning before heading in to work and I happened to come across the movie He Got Game airing on one of the cable stations. Now for those unaware, He Got Game is a 1998 movie featuring Denzel Washington as Jake Shuttlesworth, the incarcerated father of Ray Allen's character Jesus Shuttlesworth, the top prep basketball player in the country. The coincidence, of course, is that Ray Allen is now a member of the Boston Celtics.

I had seen the movie in the theatre ten years ago, and then as no, something really disturbs me about the film. Well, at the very end of the film... Oh wait, maybe I should not spoil how the movie ends... No screw it; the movie has been out for ten years and so you have had plenty of time to see it. At the very end of the film, Jake Shuttlesworth, after fulfilling his end of a bargain whereby if he convinced his son to attend Big State, the alma mater of the governor, the governor would shorten his prison sentence, finds himself still imprisoned with seemingly no change to his sentence. Concurrent while Jake is out playing basketball in the prison yard, his son is playing basketball states away in the gym of his new school, Big State.

And then the symbolic (I guess) but truly perplexing occurs. Jake begins to walk while holding a basketball toward one of the goals and beyond into a section of the grounds labelled "Out of Bounds." Now I know what you're saying; what's so wrong with labelling the part on the basketball court that is out of bounds with "Out of Bounds?" Behind the basket is out of bounds after all. Now that's a good question except for the fact that this out of bounds section was the out of bounds section in which the prison guards evidently shoot you. Now Jake is walking out toward the shoot-me-please out of bounds section while the guards call him back as they simultaneously aim their guns at him. What does Jake do? Well, he tosses the basketball high up into the air and over the prison wall.

The scene shifts, and we are now back in the gym at Big State with Jesus Shuttlesworth alone getting some practice in. He's about to attempt a shot when seemingly out of nowhere a basketball flies onto the court. Now this was no ordinary basketball (of course it wasn't, I've just told you that it came flying in from seemingly nowhere) as when Jesus picked it up, we the audience could see that it was the same basketball that Jake threw from within the prison yard those many states away. The movie ends with Jesus staring up toward the arena ceiling in amazement as he holds the basketball and Jake walking back onto the court at the prison.

Now I always swore to myself that if I ever got the chance to meet Ray Allen, I would have to ask him about this scene. This is how I would envision this going:

Me: Hey Ray, how's it going?
Ray Allen: Great.

Me: Hey Ray, can I ask you a question?
R.A.: No, you can't have an autograph.

Me: No, I have a different question. It's about He's Got Game.
R.A.: Yes, I do get annoyed when people call me Jesus.

Me: No, it's about one of the scenes from the movie.
R.A.: Yes, the scene with me and the two porn stars was as awesome as it looked.

Me: No, I want to ask about the final scene in the movie - the one where you stand there when the ball magically flies into the arena from nowhere.
R.A.: Oh, that scene.

Me: When you read the script or when Spike Lee told you about this scene, did you think that he was a crazy person?
R.A.: (silence)

Me: I mean, did Spike bother to explain exactly what the symbolism behind this was.
R.A.: (silence)

Me: Was your character in the movie even supposed to know that your character's father threw the basketball because I couldn't see the ball closely, but I don't recall seeing "Property of Attica State Prison" on it?
R.A.: (silence)

Me: Oh, did Spike even tell you that a scene with Denzel throwing the ball was juxtaposed with the ball flying into the arena? Wait, did you even see the movie?
R.A.: Look, do you want my autograph or not?

And that's exactly how it would play out. Well, I wish to inform you that I did encounter Ray Allen on one occasion in early April of 2004. And how did things play out? Forgive me, but that is a story for another day...

Preakness Preview

Okay, we are one day away from the Preakness and as opposed to the Kentucky Derby, I have decided that I should provide a pre-race preview of this race. (You might remember that I was dealing with only a brief bit of time leading up to the Kentucky Derby considering that the Derby was raced on May 3, only a short three days after the April Boycott.) Let me make one thing clear from the start; the only reason I would consider any of these horses to be any sort of a threat to Big Brown is because with the exception of Gayego, none of the other horses raced Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby, and thus have all been off since at least April 20. (That is with the exception of Macho Again who ran in a 7.5 furlong race on April 26.)

On paper and with full rest, Big Brown should crush these other horses, especially since at the Preakness, as opposed to the last two times that Big Brown has raced, Big Brown did not draw the far outside post, and thus should not have to swing so wide on the first turn. Breaking from the seven post, I would expect jockey Kent Desormeaux to take Big Brown to the lead from the start to avoid getting jumbled with the other horses. Big Brown has already shown that he can win races wire-to-wire, as he did at the Florida Derby. In the Florida Derby (March 29), Big Brown set quick fractions early and was still able to easily pull away from an overmatched field. With no real credible threats in this race, I would expect Desormeaux to set really controlled fractions early on (i.e., relatively slow fractions), daring any of the other horses to take over the lead. Big Brown appears to be talented enough that he can respond to any challenge made by these horses without wasting too much energy. Big Brown should be able to then pull away from the rest of the field when Desormeaux calls on him to do so. If you look at the recent races in which these horses have run, for all races reasonably close in length to the 9.5 furlongs the horses will run on Saturday (so I'm excluding Macho Again's 7.5 furlong race), all of Big Brown's competitors were fighting to the very end to run times that were inferior to the times that Big Brown ran at both the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby where in each case he had more to give if needed. Big Brown should not have much trouble winning this race.

As for the rest of the field, originally I was going to pick Behindatthebar for second and Yankee Bravo for third, but with the scratch of Behindatthebar, I'm promoting Yankee Bravo up to second and moving Gayego into third position.